This study reports the results of a multiyear program to predict direct executive elections in a variety of countries from globally pooled data. We developed prediction models by means of an election data set covering 86 countries and more than 500 elections, and a separate data set with extensive polling data from 146 election rounds. We also participated in two live forecasting experiments.
This project explores whether a real time sentiment index, constructed using the universe of Reuters news, can help in forecasting GDP and predicting extreme events, such as large reversal in capital flows, in emerging markets.
Social interactions increasingly take place online. Friendships and other offline social ties have been repeatedly associated with human longevity, but online interactions might have different properties. Here, we reference 12 million social media profiles against California Department of Public Health vital records and use longitudinal statistical models to assess whether social media use is associated with longer life.
Donald Trump has become well known for his shoot-from-the-hip tweeting style. Lots of insults, lots of rants and lots of energy. Data scientists who have examined all of Trump's tweets over time found he has some very clear Twitter strategies and tactics that, in many ways, have been working.