Publications

Publication date: 
04/2017
Authors: 
Brilé Anderson
Thomas Bernauer
Stefano Balietti

Despite the shift from multilateral negotiations on legally binding mitigation commitments to the decentralized nonbinding Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) approach in global climate policy, governments and other stakeholders continue to insist that fairness principles guide the overall effort. Key recurring principles in this debate are capacity and historical responsibility.

Publication date: 
04/2017
Authors: 
David Lazer
Jason Radford

Social life continues to increasingly occur in digital environments and to be mediated by digital systems. Big data represents the data being generated by the digitization of social life which we break down into three domains: digital life, digitalized life, and digitized traces. We argue that there is enormous potential in using big data to study a variety of phenomena that remain difficult to observe.

Publication date: 
03/2017
Authors: 
Michael Neblo
William Minozzi
Kevin Esterling
Jon Green
Jonathan Kingzette
David Lazer

The bitterly factious 2016 U.S. presidential election campaign was the culmination of several trends that, taken together, constitute a syndrome of chronic ailments in the body politic. Ironically, these destructive trends have accelerated just as science has rapidly improved our understanding of them and their underlying causes. But mere understanding is not sufficient to repair our politics.

Publication date: 
03/2017
Authors: 
Nir Grinberg
Shankar Kalyanaraman
Lada A. Adamic
Mor Naaman

When people share updates with their friends on Facebook they have varying expectations for the feedback they will receive. In this study, we quantitatively examine the factors contributing to feedback expectations and the potential outcomes of expectation fulfillment.

Keywords: 
Feedback expectations; Computer-mediated communication; Social Media; Facebook; Information Sharing
Publication date: 
02/2017
Authors: 
Ryan Kennedy
Stefan Wojcik
David Lazer

This study reports the results of a multiyear program to predict direct executive elections in a variety of countries from globally pooled data. We developed prediction models by means of an election data set covering 86 countries and more than 500 elections, and a separate data set with extensive polling data from 146 election rounds. We also participated in two live forecasting experiments.

Keywords: 
election
prediction
Publication date: 
12/2016
Authors: 
Jason Radford
Andy Pilny
Ashley Reichelmann
Brian Keegan
Brooke Foucault Welles
Jefferson Hoye
Katherine Ognyanova
Waleed Meleis
David Lazer
Publication date: 
11/2016
Authors: 
Stefano Balietti

nodeGame is a free, open-source JavaScript/ HTML5 framework for conducting synchronous experiments online and in the lab directly in the browser window. It is specifically designed to support behavioral research along three dimensions: (i) larger group sizes, (ii) real-time (but also discrete time) experiments, and (iii) batches of simultaneous experiments.

Keywords: 
Behavioral experiments Software Real-time Browser Online Open-source JavaScript
Publication date: 
11/2016
Authors: 
Samuel Fraiberger

This project explores whether a real time sentiment index, constructed using the universe of Reuters news, can help in forecasting GDP and predicting extreme events, such as large reversal in capital flows, in emerging markets.

Publication date: 
11/2016
Authors: 
Will Hobbs
Moira Burke
Nicholas A. Christakis
James Fowler

Social interactions increasingly take place online. Friendships and other offline social ties have been repeatedly associated with human longevity, but online interactions might have different properties. Here, we reference 12 million social media profiles against California Department of Public Health vital records and use longitudinal statistical models to assess whether social media use is associated with longer life.

Publication date: 
09/2016
Authors: 
Wei Wang
Ryan Kennedy
David Lazer
Naren Ramakrishnan

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Journal Article