Predicting Elections

Status: 
In progress
Predicting Elections

The Lazer Lab, with support from the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), has embarked on an ambitious effort to predict the outcomes of national executive elections across the globe, select local elections in Latin America, and major referenda in Latin America. The project launched in 2012, and has already produced a model for predicting global executive elections that is correct in about 80% of out-of-sample elections. Our prediction model is now running in real-time, with predictions posted on the Complexity and Social Network Blog at regular intervals. In addition to the prediction model, this project also aims to improve our understanding of where social media can (and cannot) improve election forecasts and to increase the information available to researchers about historical elections.